The psychology of groups

Human beings have a very deep and instinctive attraction to joining groups. We know that this is how humans survived in the wild at the beginning of their evolution - by forming groups and so finding themselves able to protect themselves against predators. Indeed one of the most terrifying ordeals that it is possible to imagine is to be excluded, to be on the outside and unprotected. I was reminded of this forcibly when I worked at a large secondary school – hearing of the experiences of some children of being alone and outside their group was quite terrifying. And it is fascinating and instructive to see the power of the Parliamentary groups – Labour, Tory and Lib Dem's. And you can see that this group attraction extends way down and out into the country amongst party workers and local councillors etc. An enormous amount of meaning and security is gained by joining and participating in these groups. And, especially in Parliament, the group protects you - the ideas, the aspirations, the shared history and the everyday practicality of survival in an alien and difficult environment.

Another characteristic of human beings is there sensitivity to opportunities for cooperation. For, how else have human beings survived, other than by looking and finding the opportunities to combine that yield mutual protection in the first instance, but also wealth, prestige and preferment?

The third characteristic is the sensitivity of those in co-operative groups to ensuring fairness - that no member of the group is getting more than their fair share, getting a free ride and taking advantage. Because if this happens, cooperation fails and then both sides lose out in the non zero game on offer.

When we see this coalition just beginning, it is clear that the Lib Dem junior partner is the most vulnerable. It will seem to have more to lose and to have less in the way of defences. So for the coalition to survive, it is the LibDems that will always need to be cajoled and persuaded if they feel the level of trust begins to fall, while on the Conservative side it will be about their perceptions of fairness - or are the LibDems taking advantage. This in turn will be determined by what the Conservatives see as the advantages of the cooperation, relative to the perceived costs that they are having to bear.

My sense is that this coalition can survive a lot longer than the world-weary cynics are expecting. First it is to the overwhelming advantage of the Conservatives that they stay in power for long enough to sort out the terrible debt problems, begin to get the economy moving again and so neutralise and indeed reverse the appalling bedrock of anti-Tory feeling in the media and amongst sections of the electorate. So it will be to their advantage to bend over backwards and to neutralise in themselves any sense of unfairness.

The other element that will keep the coalition together is that together they might survive the gleeful onslaught from Labour as the cuts begin to bite and the consequential unpopularity in the country. While if they separate and go their own way too early, then one or both of them will be destroyed. And the prize of survival is great - namely the return to some trajectory of growth and improvement for the country, the reversal of the awful decline that is now in prospect and the destruction of tribal Labour.